In one corner you have Harvey Weinstein saying that "we're going to win Best Picture" in reference to Inglourious Basterds. In another you have Peter Guber on Fox making the argument that money could push Avatar over the top while being surprised that Robert Downey Jr. wasn't nominated for Sherlock Holmes. Fox's Oscar expert, ladies and gentlemen. Harvey and Peter might be in for a rude awakening on Oscar night though. At the time of their statements they didn't have the benefit of a magic award that might just hold the very key to predicting Best Picture on March 7. It's a vital category, one you can't create film without. The Guild that represents them handed out their awards Sunday evening. And they may have just handed The Hurt Locker the Oscar for Best Picture.

The American Cinema Editors gave their award for Best Editing in the Dramatic category to Kathryn Bigelow's film. They split their primary award Globe-style into Comedy and Drama in 1999. The Hangover won on the Comedy side this year (presumably for successfully editing out any modicum of comic timing) while Up and The Cove won their Animated and Documentary categories. Since 1990 there have only been two times (Apollo 13, Traffic) when one of their victors has not gone on to win the Oscar for Best Film Editing. Oh, film editing poppycock you say - how does this figure into Best Picture?

Well, 14 of the last 29 films that won the Film Editing Oscar also won Best Picture. I agree, not very convincing. How about 11 of the last 19? That sound better? A tad at least over the 50/50 proposition given to the ACE's Dramatic Editing award winning Best Picture since 1999. Throw Chicago winning over on the Comedy side and that is six of the last ten with ACE awarding the eventual victor. Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are all in the running for the Editing Oscar. Of course, we are ignoring the bigger picture here.

The Hurt Locker has already won the Directors and Producers Guild Awards. Throw in its fresh ACE victory and the film is placed in very exclusive company. Since 1989, the inception of the Producers Guild Award, there have been eight films that have won these three awards:

Dances with Wolves, Schindler's List, Forrest Gump, The English Patient, Titanic, Chicago, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire

(Note: There have actually been nine films in that time to win the PGA, DGA & ACE. Saving Private Ryan then lost the Oscar to Shakespeare In Love)

Maybe Mr. Guber and Mr. Weinstein might want to start marking The Hurt Locker for Best Picture in their Oscar pool. I certainly am.
categories Oscars, Awards, Cinematical