As 2010 comes to a close, we are also past the first phase of awards season. The critics' groups have (mostly) finalized their choices and we are now heading into "guild territory." Victors from the Golden Globes and Broadcast Film Critics Association are not going to tell us anything we don't already know about who might earn an Oscar nomination -- unless, of course, they award one of the underdogs like Michael Douglas or the couple from 'Blue Valentine.' Nope, it's the guilds that will begin thinning the herd next week, producers first. 8 of their 10 nominees last year were up for Oscar, minus 'Invictus' and 'Star Trek' (replaced by 'A Serious Man' and 'The Blind Side'). The consensus on the eight this year appear to be 'Black Swan,''The Fighter,''Inception,''The King's Speech,''The Social Network,''Toy Story 3,''True Grit,' and 'Winter's Bone.' The following five will likely battle it out for the final two slots: '127 Hours,' 'Blue Valentine,' 'How To Train Your Dragon,' 'The Kids Are All Right,' 'Rabbit Hole,' and 'The Town'.

You can find those rankings and the rest of Big Eight categories here, but what about the pesky technical categories and all the rest? Critics groups vary when including them in their annual awards. So before we get into the real nitty-gritty of the guild numbers, let us see where these categories rank and which are likely to bump up the nomination totals we see splashed across newspapers and commercials.
1. 'Toy Story 3'
2. 'How to Train Your Dragon'
3. 'The Illusionist'
4. 'Tangled'
5. 'Despicable Me'
6. 'My Dog Tulip'
7. 'Megamind'
8. 'Idiots and Angels'
9. 'Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole'
10. 'Summer Wars'

(Other contenders include: 'Alpha and Omega', 'Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore', 'The Dreams of Jinsha', 'Shrek Forever After' and 'Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue')

1. 'Waiting for Superman'
2. 'The Tillman Story'
3. 'Inside Job'
4. 'Exit through the Gift Shop'
5. 'Waste Land'
6. 'Gasland'
7. 'Enemies of the People'
8. 'Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould'
9. 'Quest for Honor'
10. 'Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer'

(Other contenders include: 'The Lottery', 'Precious Life', ' Restrepo', 'This Way of Life', 'William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe')

1. 'Black Swan'
2. 'Inception'
3. 'True Grit'
4. '127 Hours'
5. 'Shutter Island'
6. 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I'
7. 'The Social Network'
8. 'The King's Speech'
9. 'Winter's Bone'
10. 'Never Let Me Go'

1. 'Inception'
2. 'Black Swan'
3. 'The Social Network'
4. 'True Grit'
5. 'The Town'
6. '127 Hours'
7. 'Shutter Island'
8. 'The King's Speech'
9. 'Scott Pilgrim vs. the World'
10. 'The Fighter'
1. 'Inception'
2. 'The Social Network'
3. '127 Hours'
4. 'Alice In Wonderland'
5. 'The King's Speech'
6. 'The Ghost Writer'
7. 'Never Let Me Go'
8. 'Tron: Legacy'
9. 'How To Train Your Dragon'
10. 'Tangled'

('Black Swan', 'The Fighter', 'The Kids Are All Right', and 'True Grit' have all been disqualified.)

1. 'Inception'
2. 'Black Swan'
3. 'Shutter Island'
4. 'The King's Speech'
5. 'Alice In Wonderland'
6. 'True Grit'
7. 'Robin Hood'
8. 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I'
9. 'Tron: Legacy'
10. 'The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader'

1. 'The King's Speech'
2. 'Black Swan'
3. 'Alice In Wonderland'
4. 'True Grit'
5. 'Shutter Island'
6. 'Robin Hood'
7. 'Get Low'
8. 'Kick-Ass'
9. 'Burlesque'
10. 'Tron: Legacy'

1. 'Inception'
2. 'Alice in Wonderland'
3. 'Tron: Legacy'
4. 'The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader'
5. 'Clash of the Titans'
6. 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1'
7. 'Iron Man 2'
8. 'Scott Pilgrim vs. the World'
9. 'Hereafter'
10. 'Unstoppable'

(Other contenders include: 'The Last Airbender', 'Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief', 'Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time', 'Shutter Island', and 'The Sorcerer's Apprentice')

1. 'Alice in Wonderland'
2. 'Black Swan'
3. 'True Grit'
4. 'Inception'
5. 'Shutter Island'
6. 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1'
7. 'Let Me In'
8. 'Get Low'
9. 'Robin Hood'
10. 'Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief'

1. 'Inception'
2. 'Black Swan'
3. 'True Grit'
4. '127 Hours'
5. 'The Fighter'
6. 'The Town'
7. 'Shutter Island'
8. 'Unstoppable'
9. 'Salt'
10. 'How To Train Your Dragon'
1. 'Inception'
2. 'True Grit'
3. '127 Hours'
4. 'Toy Story 3'
5. 'Black Swan'
6. 'How To Train Your Dragon'
7. 'The Town'
8. 'Scott Pilgrim vs. the World'
9. 'Tron: Legacy'
10. 'Unstoppable'

These rankings will no doubt take some hits over the next four weeks leading up to Oscar. It's unlikely that three films are going to rake in double-digit nominations, although between 'Black Swan,' 'Inception,' and 'True Grit,' you have to think that at least one of them has a shot. 'The King's Speech' with 9 nods sounds just about right. Can 'The Social Network' pull in more than 7 or 8 nods en route to being the frontrunner? Is '127 Hours' really a bubble player for Best Picture if it is in the running for as many as six nominations away from the Big Eight? Stay tuned; we could be in for an interesting final month.
categories Awards, Cinematical