No lifelines needed here. Now that Slumdog Millionaire's Simon Beaufoy has won the Writers Guild of America award for best adapted screenplay, it is all but guaranteed to win the Oscar for Best Picture.
For you see, Slumdog also won the Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America prizes, making the WGA win the completion of a trifecta. Seven other films have achieved the same feat, and all but one took the Best Picture Oscar, too -- and the one that didn't, Brokeback Mountain, was considered a huge upset when it lost.
The other WGA award, for original screenplay, went to Dustin Lance Black for Milk, also an Oscar Best Picture nominee. At this point, Milk would be the most likely candidate for upsetting Slumdog, but don't put any money on it.
So what about the screenplay categories at the Oscars? Those have matched the WGA winners nine out of the last 14 years in the Original category, 10 out of 14 in the Adapted.