'Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen'If you don't know your Megatron from your Optimus Prime, join the club! Most giant robots look all the same to me, and the first Transformers movie felt like a comedown for Michael Bay after the gleeful insanity of Bad Boys II. Still, I've gotten a kick out ot reading a few of the reviews, like the one penned by our own Todd Gilchrist, as well as the harsh critical takedowns by Roger Ebert and Manohla Dargis. And now I'm wondering how Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen will perform at the box office. Can it possibly recoup its huge production and marketing budget? How big is big?

The movie is off to a running start, earning an estimated $16 million from midnight screenings last night, according to Variety. That's less than The Dark Knight's $18.5 million last year, but Variety notes the Batman flick "had the advantage of opening on a Friday" and that Transformers 2 had "the best midnight run ever for a movie opening on a Wednesday." Transformers made $8.8 million on its opening night (Tuesday at 12:01 a.m.) in 2007 and went on to earn $146.6 million in its first six full days of screenings, including the July 4 holiday, per Box Office Mojo.

The record to beat for the first five days of release is $203.7 million, set by The Dark Knight. Can Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen get anywhere near that record? Take our poll and let us know: How much will it make in its opening five-day weekend?