UPDATE: Um. Never mind! We were sure Jason Roy would win "Big Brother: Over the Top" (see below) but Morgan Willett won by what was billed as 20,000 votes. Are you shocked? Happy? Disappointed? Is this on the level of Nicole beating Paul in BB18, or completely different?

Original post:

Jason Roy is about to win enough money to finally move out of his mother's basement. "Big Brother: Over the Top" -- the "Big Brother" -- is ending tonight, with America choosing the winner from these three finalists:

  • Jason Roy

  • Morgan Willett

  • Kryssie Ridolfi

That ranking is very likely how things are going to turn out. Kryssie is almost certain to be third place, with the $250,000 win coming down to "Big Brother 17" veteran Jason vs. sister soldier Morgan.

Executive producer Allison Grodner claims there have been "really close votes" this season, but the superfan veteran is probably going to win. Because the "America" that is voting is a niche group of superfans and veterans who -- for multiple reasons -- will skew the vote to Jason over Morgan.

This seems predictable, but also surprising. The BBOTT crew knew America would have a large role this season, and they knew Jason was a BB17 veteran, so why didn't they target him when they had the chance?

Jason did win the Power of Veto a few times, and he did have some help from America, but that was also a sign that he should probably be targeted before he got far enough to win whole thing. Then again, the Houseguests didn't know from Day 1 that America voted in Jason over Jozea. But they knew enough to realize he was a threat on a season with so much power being directed from people at home. Jason came into the house with more than 60,000 Twitter followers and the backing of "Big Brother" veterans. Morgan had her sister Alex in the house, which was its own advantage, but she and her alliance were the underdogs. It's easy to root for underdogs, but they are underdogs for a reason: It's unlikely they will defeat Goliath.

Many fans wish Shelby Stockton had made the finals, and Shelby is part of , whether that helps or not:

But so much of the BB fan base is Team Jason, and not just because he's a veteran. It's also because he's a superfan who played hard the whole season and winning "Big Brother" is his dream. Yeah, he's a trash-talker and his attitude can be annoying, but if this comes down to strategic gameplay, the win will probably go to Jason. And if it comes down to popularity, the win will probably go to Jason. There's only a sliver of underdog hope that the win will go to the sweet, less strategic, non-superfan Morgan, but we've seen elections go the other way before.

Julie Chen is hosting tonight's (Thursday, December 1) live finale at 8 p.m. ET on CBS All Access.

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