Zero Dark Thirty - Assessing Certainty in Intelligence Operations
CIA Director:
I'm about to go look the President in the eye, and what I'd like to know, no fucking bullshit, is where everyone stands on this thing. Now, very simply, is he there, or is he not fucking there?
Deputy Director:
We all come at this through the filter of our own past experiences. I remember "Iraq WMD" very clearly, I fronted that, and I can tell you the case for that was much stronger than this case.
CIA Director:
A fuckin yes or a no.
Deputy Director:
We don't deal in certainty, we deal in probability. I'd say there's a sixty percent probability he's there.
The Wolf:
I concur. Sixty percent.
George: [[w:Operations security|OPSEC]
I'm at eighty percent. Their ] is what convinces me.
CIA Director:
You guys ever agree on anything?
Dan:
Well, I agree with sixty, we're basing this mostly on detainee reporting and I spent a bunch of time in those rooms. Who knows? I'd say it's a soft sixty, sir. I'm virtually certain there's some high value target there, I'm just not sure it's bin Laden.
CIA Director:
This is a cluster-fuck, isn't it?
Jeremy:
I'd like to know what Maya thinks...
Deputy Director:
We're all incorporating her assessment into ours...
Maya: [interrupting]
A hundred percent he's there. Okay, fine, ninety-five percent because I know how certainty freaks you guys out, but it's a hundred.
Quotes sourced from Wikiquote (© Wikiquote contributors), licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Modified for formatting/length.
Zero Dark Thirty - Assessment of Security Patterns in Afghanistan
Jessica:
A farmer on the Afghan border near Tora Bora reports a diamond shaped pattern in the hills, tall male in the center of the diamond, flanked by four guards. It's consistent with UBL's movements.
Jeremy:
That's supposed to be his Royal Guard?
Maya:
That's pre-9/11 behavior.
Jessica: [irritated]
We don't have any reason to believe he's changed security tactics.
Maya:
We invaded Afghanistan. That's a reason.
Quotes sourced from Wikiquote (© Wikiquote contributors), licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Modified for formatting/length.