But the Oscars are unlikely to echo the SAG preference for "Hidden Figures." For one thing, the SAG membership goes for female-driven ensembles a lot more often than the Academy does; for instance, they picked "Little Miss Sunshine" over eventual Oscar-winner "The Departed" and "The Help" over "The Artist." (For all the talk about racial parity among this year's Academy Award nominees, few have mentioned that Best Picture and most behind-the-camera categories remain overwhelmingly male-dominated.)
Don't count "La La Land" out for Best Picture -- it still won all the other important precursor awards. Over the weekend, it won the Producers Guild prize, which, like the Oscars, uses a preferential ballot, and which has correctly predicted the eventual Best Picture trophy winner more than two-thirds of the time.
And even Stone, whose movie doesn't carry a weighty message about what life is like for marginalized people in America, felt compelled to mention contemporary politics in her SAG speech. Academy voters could grant the frothy musical romance a sweep in its nominated categories, and they still might not be able to avoid having the winners complain about politics.
Will that make a difference to Oscar voters? There's still a lot that can happen between now and February 13, the day Academy members receive their final ballots. This week alone, guilds representing the directors, cinematographers, animators, and visual effects artists will hand out their prizes.
Still, the inevitability of political speeches from the Dolby Theatre podium could free up Academy members to decide they don't have to make political statements with their votes, since the winners will make them no matter who they are.
Maybe we're still being naive, but couldn't that mean that voters will be free to pick favorites based on merit alone?
