You know it's a bad day in Hollywood when "Magic Mike XXL" can't get a rise out of the box office.



The male-stripper sequel was expected to earn in the low $30 million range over the three-day holiday weekend, and hit somewhere around $45M for the five days since its debut on Wednesday. Instead, it opened in fourth place with an estimated Friday-to-Sunday haul of $12 million and $27.1 million for its first five days of release. That's nearly 45 percent below the $49.6 million the original "Magic Mike" earned in its first five days in 2012. Ouch.



Another sequel, "Terminator Genisys," also underperformed this weekend. The fifth film in the franchise opened in third with an estimated $28.7 million for the three-day weekend, and $44.2 million since its Wednesday debut. But at least those numbers were at the low end of what pundits had predicted. "Magic Mike XXL" wasn't even in the ballpark.



Why did Channing Tatum and his team of male entertainers drop so fast and so far? Here are six likely reasons:



1. Channing Tatum Can Be Hit or Miss

Is C. Tates a box office draw? Sure. A consistent one, though? Not so much.



Outside of "The Vow," the first two "Jump Street" films and "Magic Mike," Tatum seems unable to attract the level of box office that other A-Listers can. (We're looking at you, "Jupiter Ascending.") "XXL" was sold largely on his shoulders (and pecs and abs) alone, and they don't seem muscular enough.



2. The Female Appeal



That's been the big box office story all year, starting with "Fifty Shades of Grey" and "Cinderella." Indeed, exit polls show that 96 percent of "XXL's " audience were women. But it seems you have to have at least some men buying tickets to generate a hit, and "Magic Mike" had hardly any.



3. Needs More Than Just Good Word-of-mouth



"Magic Mike XXL" earned a very good A- CinemaScore, suggesting that viewers would give the film strong recommendations to friends. But the film's older audience relies on more than just word-of-mouth recommendations. These ticketbuyers still read reviews, and reviews for the sequel were decidedly mixed.



4. That Big Drop Over the Weekend

Wednesday's opening day triumph ($9.3 million) seemed to indicate that fans of the first "Mike" were really eager to see the sequel. Unfortunately, as with many franchise movies and genre films (especially horror), the die-hard fans are the only ones who feel compelled to see the film on opening day. And a troublesome 60 percent slide from Friday-to-Saturday all but underlines that point.



5. July 4th Competition



Usually, Independence Day is a good weekend to open a movie; just ask Will Smith. But this year, July 4 fell on Saturday, so fireworks and barbecues cut into the heart of the moviegoing weekend. Plus, competition was especially stiff, not just from fellow newcomer "Genisys," but also from unstoppable holdovers "Jurassic World" and "Inside Out." The two box office hits nearly tied for first, even though they've already been in theaters for four weeks and three weeks, respectively.



But there is a silver lining (ish) here. Thanks to hits like "Jurassic World," "Inside Out," and "Avengers: Age of Ultron," this summer is running about 13 percent ahead of 2014, and only five percent behind 2013. But are these films, and December's "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," enough to carry a whole year?



They'd better be, if the rest of 2015 turns out to be filled with miscalculations like "Magic Mike XXL."