UPDATE: My god, he did it! Josh Martinez managed to win over Paul Abrahamian, even though Josh won the Final HoH comp and chose to take Paul to the end. That seemed like a suicide move, but the very bitter jury voted for Josh to win over Paul. For the second year in a row, Paul lost by one vote. Last year it was Da'Vonne, this year it was Cody. Wow.
Paul really should've known not to lie in his goodbye messages -- juries hate unnecessary lies -- and to own his game instead of acting like he didn't lie and bully. And he dared call Josh a coward for being honest in his goodbye messages? Josh wasn't the greatest gamer by a huge stretch, and it sucks that this is going to boost his ego, but still. This was a reaction to Paul, not Josh.
"Big Brother 19" will be put out of its misery next Wednesday, Sept. 20, and Paul Abrahamian is still most likely to win that $500,000.
There's still hope/fear -- depending on your perspective -- that one of the other remaining Houseguests could defeat the BB18 veteran. That vet already has $50,000 from last year, in addition to automatic safety for the first four weeks of this year, plus eight friendship bracelets he was able to use to make a majority house alliance. But who's counting. He's also played hardest to win. Point blank and the period
Here are scenarios (cue the Jozea GIF) where Potty Mouth Paul could still lose.
EVICTED AT FINAL 4
UPDATE: Never mind this part! It was valid, until Paul won the Final 4 HoH, as shown on Wednesday's special eviction episode. Paul nominated Kevin and Josh. But noms at F4 are basically irrelevant. Power of Veto is all. It was shown online that Paul also won PoV. Because this is The Paul Show. He's going to keep noms the same. Christmas is the only vote, and she'll vote out Kevin. Paul also told the cameras he does plan to take Josh to the end, if he gets that choice. And he probably will.
EVICTED AT FINAL 3
If Paul gets to the Final HoH comps, he is most likely to win Part 1, which is traditionally endurance. Even if he magically loses that, he is also most likely to win Part 2.
UPDATE: Part 1 took place late Thursday night/early Friday and -- as expected -- Paul won. Part 2 took place on Saturday between Josh and Christmas, and apparently it was a close one. Josh won, though, so Josh and Paul will compete in Part 3 on Wednesday's live finale.
Part 3 can be tricky -- it's a borderline crapshoot to guess A or B, to compete an evicted HG's quote -- but Paul won this last year. He picked the wrong person to take to the end, but if he gets to F3 this year and wins Part 3 he has much better options.
Paul has been pushing Josh to confirm that they will take each other to Final 2. Paul wants them to tell Christmas too, to lock it in that she's out and Josh/Paul are F2 end game no matter who wins Part 3. That is obviously a much better deal for Paul than Josh, and Josh seems to know that. If Josh wins Part 3, he would (almost) certainly evict Paul and go to the end with Christmas. In that case, Josh is most likely to win.
The jury currently consists of Cody Nickson, Mark Jansen, Elena Davies, Matt Clines, Jason Dent, and Raven Walton. Alex is about to join them. Let's say Kevin follows, and then Christmas.
UPDATE: Alex and Kevin did follow in jury. Christmas will most likely be the final juror if Paul wins Part 3. Paul could still be the final juror if Josh wins Part 3.
Most of that jury will be ticked at Paul, realizing Cody was right about him the whole time. However, that's not the same thing as being bitter enough to vote for Christmas or Josh. That jury is not fond of Christmas or Josh either and unlikely to want to reward them. Josh picked fights with most of the house, doing Paul's dirty work, and Christmas had the few comps she could compete in thrown to her by Paul. It's most likely that the jury will give Paul a hard time, and then hold their noses to give him the money. Then they'll be best buddies with him after the show and pose with him in photos. (They'll also probably pretend they weren't awful to Kevin since Kevin is a strong contender to win America's Favorite.)
But let's say the jury is so bitter they want Paul gone. Jason is the most likely to be holding onto bitter feelings against Paul, and Alex for convincing him to trust Paul. Cody is no Paul fan, but he was planning to vote for Paul to win even before he was evicted -- figuring if the HGs are too stupid to get him out, that's on them. If Raven feels betrayed by Paul, that would make Matt feel the same and add to an anti-Paul jury. But Raven left the house convinced that Paul was on her side, and she may still be interested in defending him, since she entered the house as a huge fan of his and seems to want to stay his friend outside the house.
However, Josh left a great goodbye message for Jason, telling him the truth about his final three alliance. Paul does not know that he did that. If the jury compares stories, they should see that Josh was telling the truth. If Josh gets to the end with Paul, the jury may be willing to reward Josh for turning his game around 180-degrees from his Week 1 fight with Megan, becoming a savvy player. He may argue that he used Paul as much as Paul tried to use him. The jury may be looking for a reason -- any good reason -- to vote for someone not named Paul and give the win to Josh.
Even if Paul gets his way and goes to the end with Josh, which seems at the moment to be his plan, Josh could still win. If Paul starts to realize this -- seeing that Josh is not the dumb lug he thought -- he may decide to go to the end with Christmas instead. She adores Paul and might actually argue for him to win at F2.
Or if Kevin saves himself in the next HoH/PoV, Paul could ditch Josh and go to the end with Kevin. Kevin is unlikely to make any arguments beyond saying he had a great social game, which most of the jury would not agree with at all.
So this really hinges on Josh winning and/or the jury wanting to reward his game evolution over Paul. Fingers crossed?
"Big Brother 19" has a funky schedule for the final week, airing an eviction episode tonight at 8, and another episode Thursday, Sept. 14 at 9 p.m., as usual. There's also a Friday episode on September 15 at 8 p.m., because Sunday night there will be no episode, 'cause CBS is airing the Emmy Awards. The big finale airs Wednesday, Sept. 20 from 8 to 10 p.m.
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