Who Will Win an Oscar at this Year’s Academy Awards?
With the Oscar ceremony coming up on March 27th, Moviefone makes our predictions on who will win at the 94th Academy Awards.
The 2022 awards season will officially end on Sunday, March 27th with the airing of the 94th Academy Awards. All the campaigning and guessing who will win will be over and we will finally know who will walk away with Oscar gold.
It’s been another crazy award season, with almost every early frontrunner surpassed by another contender (with the exception of Will Smith and Jane Campion for Best Actor and Best Director, respectively). We also have an almost impossible to predict Best Actress race, and a current dead-heat for Best Picture between early frontrunner ‘The Power of the Dog’ and fan-favorite ‘CODA.’
Below are our predictions for who will win Oscars on Sunday at the 94th Academy Awards. We are only breaking down our predictions for the six major categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.
As previously mentioned, ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘CODA’ are pretty much in a statistical dead-heat at the moment. Jane Campion’s film had been the presumed Best Picture winner since its debut last fall, but Apple TV+’s ‘CODA’ is definitely giving the Netflix movie a run for its money after its recent PGA win.
After the depressing ‘Nomadland’ won Best Picture last year, there is a theory that the Academy my not want to give the Oscar to the equally depressing ‘Power of the Dog’ this year, and instead the more uplifting ‘CODA’ or ‘Belfast,’ could get the win. While Kenneth Branagh’s ‘Belfast’ has gotten a lot of love during the award season, it seems that its chances of an upset have cooled off, allowing ‘CODA’ to make a run at the top prize.
While safe money is probably still on ‘Power of the Dog’ to win Best Picture, ‘CODA’ seems poised for a big upset.
‘Don’t Look Up’
‘Drive My Car’
‘The Power of the Dog’
‘West Side Story’
Who Will Win: CODA
Who Could Win: The Power of the Dog
With the exception of Best Actor, this is the only other category that is really easy to call. Jane Campion will win Best Director for her work on ‘The Power of the Dog,’ as well as her overall career. Yes, the filmmaker has stumbled a bit on the awards circuit, misspeaking and causing a minor controversy at the Critic’s Choice Awards, but I hardly think that will affect her chances.
The director was practically preordained to win this award when her film was released last year, and I see no reason to think that she won’t. If Campion has any competition in this category it's probably Kenneth Branagh for ‘Belfast,’ but it would be a huge upset if he were actually to win.
Kenneth Branagh – ‘Belfast’
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – ‘Drive My Car’
Paul Thomas Anderson – ‘Licorice Pizza’
Jane Campion – ‘The Power of the Dog’
Steven Spielberg – ‘West Side Story’
Who Will Win: Jane Campion – ‘The Power of the Dog’
Who Could Win: Kenneth Branagh – ‘Belfast’
The Power of the Dog
Similar to Best Director, this is the only other category that will be very easy to predict. Will Smith has been preordained to win Best Actor for his work in ‘King Richard’ since the film was released last year. Besides his excellent performance in the movie, there is an overwhelming feeling that “this is Smith’s year,” and the actor has taken full advantage of that while campaigning for the award.
Although, Andrew Garfield has also been very visible during award season and has gained a lot of good will while campaigning. The praise is probably as much for his return as Spider-Man as it is for his performance in ‘tick, tick…BOOM!,’ but either way it won’t be enough to rob Smith of his big moment.
Will Smith – ‘King Richard’
Benedict Cumberbatch – ‘The Power of the Dog’
Andrew Garfield – ‘Tick, Tick…Boom!’
Javier Bardem – ‘Being the Ricardos’
Denzel Washington – ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’
Who Will Win: Will Smith – ‘King Richard’
Who Could Win: Andrew Garfield – ‘Tick, Tick…Boom!’
This is by far the strangest Best Actress race in years. Just like Campion and Smith, Kristen Stewart seemed like a lock to walk away with this award last fall, but a lot has changed since then. For whatever reason, Stewart failed to be nominated for several ceremonies leading up to this one, including SAG and BAFTA, throwing the whole race out of whack and leaving the actresses’ chances of even receiving her first Oscar nomination up in the air.
Stewart was lucky enough to be nominated, but her chances of winning now are very low, although it’s really up for grabs for anyone to take. The most likely winner seems to be Jessica Chastain, who walked away with a SAG award for Best Actress and may also benefit from the feeling that it is “her time.” But recent Best Actress winner Olivia Coleman could also win again for director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s ‘The Lost Daughter,’ which just took home Best First-Time Feature from the DGA.
Jessica Chastain – ‘The Eyes of Tammy Faye’
Olivia Coleman – ‘The Lost Daughter’
Penelope Cruz – ‘Parallel Mothers’
Nicole Kidman – ‘Being the Ricardos’
Kristen Stewart – ‘Spencer’
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain – ‘The Eyes of Tammy Faye’
Who Could Win: Olivia Coleman – ‘The Lost Daughter’
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
In another sign that ‘The Power of the Dog’s love from the Academy is winding down, both early Best Supporting Actor and Actress frontrunners seem to be in trouble.
Kodi Smit-McPhee seemed like a lock to win this category last fall, but now ‘CODA’s Troy Kotsur is the frontrunner going into Oscar weekend. Kotsur beat Smit-McPhee at both the SAG Awards and Critic’s Choice, and it’s tough to see how he could lose at this point.
Ciaran Hinds – ‘Belfast’
Troy Kotsur – ‘CODA’
Jesse Plemons – ‘The Power of the Dog’
J.K. Simmons – ‘Being the Ricardos’
Kodi Smit-McPhee – ‘The Power of the Dog’
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur – ‘CODA’
Who Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee – ‘The Power of the Dog’
Being the Ricardos
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
As we previously mentioned, last fall it looked like actress Kirsten Dunst would win Best Supporting Actress for her work in ‘The Power of the Dog,’ but things have changed.
The frontrunner is clearly now Ariana DeBose, who won SAG and BAFTA awards for her performance in ‘West Side Story.’ Aunjanue Ellis is still in the running for ‘King Richard,’ and could pull out a surprise win, but all the momentum is in DeBose’s favor to walk away with a “little gold man.”
Jessie Buckley – ‘The Lost Daughter’
Ariana DeBose – ‘West Side Story’
Judi Dench – ‘Belfast’
Kirsten Dunst – ‘The Power of the Dog’
Aunjanue Ellis – ‘King Richard’
Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose – ‘West Side Story’
Who Could Win: Kristen Dunst – ‘The Power of the Dog’
West Side Story
Don’t forget to watch the 94th Academy Award ceremony Sunday, March 28th on ABC.
And please download our printable ballot here.