Still, Academy voters have left a lot of bread crumbs on the path to the podium on the Dolby Theatre stage, so their choices aren't that hard to predict. Here's who they will probably give the trophies to on Feb. 26 -- and who actually deserves them.

He'd probably get it, too, if he weren't up against not one but two songs from "La La Land."

What Will Win: "City of Stars," the wistful ballad that is the movie's most hummable tune.
What Should Win: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)." It's the musical's most dramatic and emotional song, even if it lacks the earworm quality of "City of Stars."

Months later, it's still pretty much a two-movie race, although there's been a surge of support for late release "Hidden Figures," a feel-good historical drama about racism that's safely set in the distant past, which is also the top-grossing film among the nine Best Picture nominees.

What Will Win: "La La Land." It's won nearly every precursor award, and its record number of nominations (14) gives it momentum. Plus, Hollywood has been fond of rewarding movies about show business in recent years ("The Artist," "Argo," "Birdman").
What Should Win: "Moonlight." For sheer lyrical artistry, and for proving Roger Ebert's maxim that "Movies are the most powerful empathy machine in all the arts."